News Intelligence Analysis
AARP Rigs Its Own Poll
By Katherine Yurica
[Editor's Note: In fairness, AARP may have learned a lesson over its support of the Medicare Drug Bill. It has now opposed the Bush Administration's desire to privatize Social Security.]
A tempestuous uproar greeted America’s leading retiree organization over AARP’s endorsement of the controversial GOP Medicare proposal and AARP’s promise to spend $7 million and more if needed to help get the bill passed. With its email system clogged with protests and resignation notices, AARP hurriedly asked its pollsters, Knowledge Networks, to conduct a survey in an obvious attempt to justify its actions. AARP posted the results on its web site.
The survey was conducted in a two-day poll (November 19-20). In its article titled “Survey Finds AARP Members in Support of Medicare Legislation.” AARP said:
“A resounding 75% of AARP members polled in a survey…said that the proposed Medicare legislation should be passed because it will help low-income elderly and those with high prescription drug costs.”
In contrast, according to Peter Schurman of MoveOn.org, a reliable survey reports the majority of AARP members oppose the Medicare bill.
Now follow what happened closely because it is a fabulous record of how to get the answer you want in a “scientific poll.”
A look at the AARP survey itself (available in a PDF file) reveals that AARP misrepresented the results in its article. Of the 494 members surveyed in what was touted as a “nationally representative sample, with a margin of error plus or minus 4.4 percentage points,” it becomes clear, contrary to AARP’s claims, that those members surveyed did not conclude and could not have concluded that the new Medicare package would in any way help low-income elderly and those with high prescription drug costs.
The survey simply shows that AARP and its pollster worded the question in such a way that it creates the illusion of support. It brings to mind Karl Rove and his Rovian methodology.
First of all, the members polled could not have concluded that the Bill does in fact “help low-income elderly” because 62% of those polled said they were either completely unfamiliar with the Medicare Bill or were not very familiar with the specifics of the Bill. Only 2% felt they were very familiar with the Bill and 35% reported they were merely “somewhat familiar” and 1% refused to answer the question!
In order to ask a question of a group of people who are overwhelmingly ignorant of the subject, the pollsters had to educate the polled members—in other words, the pollster hand fed the answers they wanted to hear.
So the pollsters proceeded to remind those being polled that Medicare does not presently cover prescription drugs. Then the pollster boiled the complex bill down to three sentences. They tossed in another four sentences describing the benefits to the poor and those with high drug costs. Thus the pollsters created the “knowledge-base” for 97% of those who were polled.
Then the pollster asked the following question:
“Even if this plan won’t affect you personally either way, do you think it should be passed so that people with low-incomes or people with high drug costs can be helped?”
Seventy-five percent answered “Yes.”
The problem with the question is the question assumes the conclusion that the Medicare Bill will in fact help low-income people and people with high drug costs. It is a leading question in that it suggests and leads the member to the desired answer, which is “Yes.”
For AARP to turn that around and say that 75% of its members legitimately concluded that the Medicare legislation should be passed because it will help low-income elderly and those with high prescription drug costs is a blatant misrepresentation of the facts. It was a trick question to begin with and how AARP played on its members’ trust is shameful.
To state it in a more honest way one would have had to say: If the plan would help people with low-incomes or would help people with high drug costs—then would you favor it being passed? But AARP’s problem is, that stated in the honest way—the results represent a mere hypothetical question. As it is, they rigged their own poll, lied to their own members, and tried to cover up the fact that the management of an organization dedicated to helping their retired members—will actually place those members in harm’s way. It may well be more than a betrayal—it may be fraud. Consider that AARP CEO William Novelli, wrote a letter in July on minimum acceptable standards, then turned around and endorsed a bill that violated his own standards! No wonder 85 members of Congress have canceled their AARP memberships in just two days time. And no wonder hundreds of thousands of members are in an uproar and AARP's email system is clogged with resignations.
Katherine Yurica was educated at East Los Angeles College,
U.S.C. and the USC school of law. She worked as a consultant
for Los Angeles County and as a news correspondent for Christianity
Today plus as a freelance investigative reporter. She is
the author of three books. She is also the publisher of the Yurica
Report.
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